8 Reasons to Worry About the Alex Smith Trade
The seemingly eternal Kirk Cousins debacle that has plagued the District of Columbia sports scene for the past few years has finally reached its end. However, just because the disaster has finally reached its culmination does not mean Redskins supporters should take solace in the results. There are a variety of reasons to be concerned about the move the team made and the direction it is headed in, and I’ve listed eight of them below:
1) The Redskins are not in a position to win now
Considering that Alex Smith will be thirty-four years old at the onset of the season and the Redskins gave away perhaps their best young prospect as well as a 3rd round pick in this year’s draft; this trade would definitely be classified as a win now move. However, this Redskins team in not in a position to compete right away for a multitude of reasons. First off, in their division are the Super Bowl Champion Philidelphia Eagles, who even with winning the title this past season have a youthful core with still many years left in their prime with players such as Carson Wentz, Fletcher Cox, Lane Johnson, and Nigel Bradham. Secondly, their overall talent is simply not very good. While the defense improved last season, they still only ranked 19th in yards allowed per play and many of the players who were a huge impetus for that improvement may not be with the team this year. Kendall Fuller was ranked by Bleacher Report as the top slot corner in the league, but he was included in the deal for Alex Smith, so he is out the door for sure. MLB Zach Brown is an impending free agent, and he lead the team in tackles posting 23 more than the next closest candidate. Also in that list of impending free agents are C Spencer Long, MLB Mason Foster, and CB Bashaud Breeland, solid starters who will cost the team a decent price to keep. Breeland has elevated importance, as with Fuller out the door the team’s cornerback depth is in serious question. All these question marks make it a serious question whether this team can even compete for a playoff spot, let alone a championship.
2) Alex Smith has only succeeded with a solid running game
Alex Smith is one of the best examples in the NFL of not pulling the plug on a Quarterback’s career too quickly. Smith struggled early in his tenure with the 49ers, never posting a winning record as a starter or a QB Rating over 85 until John Harbaugh took over the team prior to the 2011 season. Smith dramatically improved that season, posting a 13–3 record and 90.7 QB Rating. He also had a strong 2012 season, before he was injured and eventually benched in favor of Colin Kaepernick. However, in addition to excellent defenses in both his years with the 49ers, Smith was helped by a stout running game. The 49ers ranked 8th and 4th in his two years with the team and were also 3rd both years in terms of rushing play percentage. This trend continued with the Chiefs, who have ranked in the top ten in rushing yards per game five out of the six seasons he has been with the team. The Redskins unfortunately do not provide this luxury. Since Alfred Morris left the team, the Redskins have ranked 21st and 28th in terms of rushing yards per game. They also don’t show any signs of improving this, as the running back class outside of LeVeon Bell is very weak and the Offensive Line ranked 21st in terms of adjusted line yards this season. Having to carry the team to success without the help of a strong running game is not a task Smith has proven he can handle before, and at the age of 34 it is difficult to project that he will be able to do that.
3) Alex Smith is unlikely to produce at the level he did last year
While as mentioned before Alex Smith has many solid seasons in his resume, last season was a particularly great one for him. Smith posted career highs in yards, touchdowns, completions, and QB Rating and was ranked by Pro Football Focus as having the 7th best season by a quarterback in the league. While he had a great year, one could point to his supporting cast as a major reason why. Smith had a trio of outstanding weapons in Kansas City in WR Tyreek Hill, TE Travis Kelce, and RB Kareem Hunt. With Jordan Reed’s health a major question mark that caused him to only start five games and register only 211 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns this past season, I would argue that Hill, Kelce, and Hunt are all better than any offensive skill player the Redskins have. All three of those players had over 1,000 yards from scrimmage this past season, while the Redskins had zero. In addition to perhaps being a function of the talent around him, one-year blips of excellent production from a Quarterback surrounded by years of steady play are common in the NFL. For example, Cam Newton posted a career best season in 2015, having career highs in QB Rating and TD:INT ratio on the way to winning the MVP and leading the Carolina Panthers to a Super Bowl birth. While many predicted this jump in Newton’s production would continue, in his two subsequent seasons he posted the two worst QB Ratings of his career and was marred by inconsistency. To find another example of this, you don’t have to look far from Newton in fellow NFC South Quarterback Matt Ryan. Ryan had always been a solid Quarterback, below the elite level contributors but never had his starting job in serious question. However, in 2016 Ryan had a historically great season, posting career bests in almost every category on the way to winning the MVP and making the Super Bowl. He led the league in yards per attempt and QB Rating that season with marks of 9.3 and 117.1 respectively after never posting a yards per attempt above 8.0 or a QB Rating above 100 in any year before that. Similar to Newton, most experts projected Ryan to not repeat his historic season but still produce at around that level. However, Ryan fell back to earth this past year, posting numbers at or below career averages in most categories. With this in mind, it is doubtful Smith plays at the same level he did last year, and more than likely falls back to solid but unspectacular Quarterback he was in the years before this past one.
4) The Alex Smith trade almost exactly mirrors the Donovan McNabb trade
While this may seem like more of an anecdotal concern rather than one grounded in analysis, history often repeats itself and it is very concerning how much the trade for Alex Smith mirrors a similar move made by the team in 2010. Heading into the 2010 season, the team was in a multi-year period of inconsistent quarterback play. In an attempt to combat this, the team traded for aging but very successful quarterback Donovan McNabb. McNabb had an excellent career up to that point and was actually coming off a very good season where he posted a 92.9 QB Rating and made the Pro Bowl. However, Head Coach Andy Reid saw that he had some talent on his QB Depth Chart behind McNabb in Kevin Kolb and Michael Vick and decided to move on from him, despite the team’s success that previous season. This trade very closely resembles the trade for Smith the team executed this season. Both times the quarterback is coming from the Andy Reid system, both times he was coming off a good season despite his age, and both times he was dealing with a significant downgrade in talent at the skill player positions.
5) This a QB heavy draft
The incoming 2018 draft class is one of the best in years for quarterbacks. By most sources, this current quarterback has as many as six quarterbacks with top two round grades. Not only are there many options, but options that fit a variety of archetypes as well. There is the gunslinger with all the confidence in the world in Josh Rosen, the Matt Ryan-esque precision passer in Sam Darnold, the college success story who succeeded without prominent physical gifts in Baker Mayfield, the prototype from a small school in Josh Allen, the ultimate playmaker in Lamar Jackson, and the “System Quarterback” with fantastic numbers in Mason Rudolph. With this many prominent signal callers in one class, some are bound to fall right to where the Redskins could take him. In a recent mock draft by Andy Reuter, he had Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, and Mason Rudolph all still available to them when it was their turn to pick.
6) Teams can win with QB’s on rookie deals
It’s often thought that a team needs a veteran presence at quarterback in order to succeed at the highest level. However, recent years have shown many cases against that trend. In the past five Super Bowls, three have included quarterbacks on rookie contracts. The base salary for a player drafted in the first round is substantially cheaper on average than what that player would acquire on the open market, which greatly opens up cap space to be spent in other areas.
7) QB Heavy free agency
In addition to a draft with a variety of quarterbacks, this upcoming free agency also contains a wide range of quarterback options. While some such as Drew Brees and Jimmy Garoppolo seem to be destined to return to their former teams; there are many available to teams looking to acquire a quarterback. If you are looking to find a younger option with some upside, going with a player such as Teddy Bridgewater or A.J. McCarron could be an affordable yet potentially very rewarding route. If you are looking for an older vet to bridge to a younger option you draft, Josh McCown or Sam Bradford are available.
8) Their cap space is still not great
There seems to have been this perception that the Alex Smith trade will allow the Redskins droves of cap space to beef up both sides of their roster. However, this really is not the case. The Redskins currently have approximately $25 million in cap space, which is actually $1 million below the league average. When gunning for top free agents such as Le’Veon Bell or Sheldon Richardson; they are very likely to be outbid by teams with more space such as the Indianapolis Colts or teams in more of a position to contend such as the Los Angeles Rams. This will leave them sifting through the scrap heap of free agents, unable to contend for the top stars on the market.
